Futurology is something that is always making me amused. This is, as the name suggests, the willingness of experts to predict what will happen in the future by applying probabilities and other scientific methods. This April sees the publication of a new report by drug manufacturers. It sets out to predict which current or future products will be significant contributors to the market to treat sleep disorders over the next ten years - an ambitious timescale for anyone without a reliable crystal ball. In April last year, ambien lost its patent protection in the United States. Although a generic version sold under the name of zolpidem (tartrate) will be launched, Ambien is almost certain to maintain its brand dominance because the world market is predicted to grow. This is actually a market in transition. Indeed, the most recent data on the number of prescriptions for ambien continues a trend of upward demand.

To understand the market, we need to factor in two other factors:

• the public is growing more aware of the treatments for sleep disorder which will drive further market growth for sleeping medications, and the pharmaceutical companies are investing in researches to produce new medications for the sleep disorders market.

On the basis of current medical research, it is estimated that some 200m people around the world may be affected by sleep disorders. If that is the case, pharmaceutical companies working in the sleep field have only just begun to scratch the surface of the total market. As the public become more aware of the range of these disorders and of the existing and pending treatments, demand should continue to grow. For the insomnia market, the focus remains on the existing medications with the fewest side effects, i.e. the benzodiazepines and nonbenzodiazepine hypnotics such as ambien.